Hillary Clinton has many paths to 270 electoral votes, while Trump has very few. Hillary is nearly certain to win 16 “blue” states, including Washington D.C., which will garner her 191 electoral votes. If we add the five states that FiveThirtyEight.com gives Hillary a 70% or greater chance of winning (Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin), Hillary only needs ten more electoral votes.
To capture those final 10 electoral votes, Clinton will have to win either Florida, North Carolina, or Ohio. Put a different way, of these battleground states, Hillary can win just one (Florida, Ohio or North Carolina) and win the presidency, which means the six additional states would only add more electoral votes to her total or she can win any two of the following: Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Nevada and win the presidency.
Even if Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio he’s still 17 electoral votes short of 270. To win, he’ll need to find those electoral votes in Colorado (which FiveThirtyEight gives Hillary a 65% chance of winning), plus at least two of the three small battleground states: Iowa, Nevada, or New Hampshire. All of these scenarios assume that Trump wins traditionally “red” states, such as Arizona, Georgia, and Utah, even though he is currently underperforming in these contests.
The memo argues against taking individual national and state polls too seriously, and notes that Barack Obama’s razor-close wins in battleground states suggest Clinton’s ground operation — particularly in contrast to Trump’s lack of one — actually could prove decisive in very close contests.
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Campaign Memo Charts Path To Victory
