War in the Cards With N Korea?

[marsean]

Originally Posted by pumpagain69

I can definitely see the logic in most of what you are bringing forth marsean. But I do have
lingering thoughts as to what could happen next. Firstly Trump gave his fire and fury remarks witch brought alarm to many. That was ok with me however. When he then said maybe my remarks weren't strong enough it seemed to me he was expressing frustration.
Then the short fat one backed away from Guam attack and said the ball is in the U S court for the next move. So I wonder with the scheduled U S and So Korea military exercise
next week that NK strongly opposes what will this set off. I see another week of high tensions up coming.

Heard more of China talks with US over this issue and over trade issues. Both the US and China say that our trade issues and NK are separate issues and must be dealt with separately. I agree with the assessment on that. It is hard for China to hear that their(carrot before the donkey)strategy to get US companies to do business in China they have been required to share IP of the US companies with their Chinese counterparts or government in order to gain access to the Chinese markets. Now it was announced this not only effectively steals the knowledge contained in IP from the US companies who developed it, but that it costs the US a loss of 30% of jobs and profit and also gives China a huge trade imbalance with us because of what the Chinese do with their "Free" donation of IP by us. This is a separate issue but China knows they will have to deal with it.

Back to the NK issue, I maintain (since 80-90% of NK trade is with China, and US can cause a slowdown of banking functions that NK depends on) it remains to be seen how long NK can function without getting nervous about survival. NK has apparently finally deduced that missile shots at Guam is not a helpful move for their future. Fat Haircut's (FH) statement that they will wait a while before taking action it besides a cop out, a way of buying time (time to breathe). He wants to act as if he has a lot of options but he knows they have pressed it to the breaking point since all 15 votes in the UN Security Council went against him making threats, which he ignored for years that the UN condemned long ago NK's Nuke program. The US is not going to sit idly by and take FH threatening us or our territory or our allies. Now he knows it. He decided he has to cool it or lose it big time. Just think if he did the Guam thing, and his country were devastated. Even if he were to survive, what would he tell his people then? It might go back to an armistice but in that scenario he loses all his Nukes anyway with his people dropped way way down about 10 notches. FH has some serious thinking to do. Over time if the sanctions are held in a serious way by US and China, with a continuing dialogue, to be sure it is effective, the region over there can be made to be peaceful, and whether or not is causes a regime change, NK will have to dismantle their Nukes, which will shut off the influence of Iran and other bad actor states who have helped NK get to where they are. Peace in our time. It may be shocking, but China has realized for this to come, actually will be heavily beneficial FOR THEM in the long term too. Nobody wants war, especially a world war, who is thinking correctly, as peace with commerce for all works out much better. We know this, and so does China. NK will come to understand it as well but first instead of going against the grain and acting like a spoiled brat, they will have to learn to live as the world has dictated to them, which they will have to sell to their people a totally new message, that doing so will lead to their prosperity and survival.

Therefore, the calm and measured way is to take the LONG TERM view and not let the day to day and weekly rumblings cause actions which would be regretted by all.

[pumpagain69]

Regretted by all is an understatement. Recently I read that the US intelligence
ran war projections for a renewed war in Korea a few years back. It projected
that by 2020 NK would be where they are actually now. In the worst of these
projections if war broke out 8 million people would die within a few days. That
would be NK SK Japanese and Americans. It concluded that if it didn't occur
in 2020 and it occurred years following the death and destruction would
be significantly more. So this is what all those years of kicking the can down
the road got us.

[marsean]

Originally Posted by pumpagain69

Regretted by all is an understatement. Recently I read that the US intelligence
ran war projections for a renewed war in Korea a few years back. It projected
that by 2020 NK would be where they are actually now. In the worst of these
projections if war broke out 8 million people would die within a few days. That
would be NK SK Japanese and Americans. It concluded that if it didn't occur
in 2020 and it occurred years following the death and destruction would
be significantly more. So this is what all those years of kicking the can down
the road got us.

Yep, kicking the can down the road does not work, except your red bull can after you lose in horseshoes. Not an easy lift after all the neglect, but NO REASON TO BLINK. Only way, now China knows it as well, and they are concerned big time, that is a good thing. Yes to convince the NK regime they have to pull in their horns will not be easy, but let's give the sanctions time.

[pumpagain69]

NK shot a missile over Japan. They have been avoiding doing that for the last 15 years or so.
Bad feeling about this.

[cutback]

I am surprised Japan didn't shoot that missile down, is Japan capable of shooting them down?

[marsean]

Originally Posted by cutback

I am surprised Japan didn't shoot that missile down, is Japan capable of shooting them down?

Sure, Japan could have done so, but would have been prudent to do so after the missiles cleared Japan and moved somewhat further east, in case they had a real payload in them. By not shooting them down they allowed an act of aggression that could have landed on Japan, as if to shrug their shoulders, without acting pissed or retaliating themselves. Quite a bit of restraint. This strength shown by Japan I am very sure is just the MO that drives No. Korea totally crazy, knowing that the whole world knows who the bad boy is. I am quite sure all scenarios have been discussed between Japan, US, and So. Korea as allies, and we already know that all allies have been guaranteed safety by US. The fact that N.K. keeps on pulling our chain will be damned sooner or later.

[marsean]

You know any real talk with them is by this "back channel" lately, right? So what if besides these latest sanctions, the UN security council also agreed to inform the Fat Haircut that they are sending in nuclear weapons inspectors to identify all their sites. Of course the location of most are probably known already. The alternative for the Haircut is to brace for impact. That aught to pull his chain pretty good. So the "back channel" messaging can then dictate to him. Basically the same game he has thrown at the civilized world to see their reaction to his B.S. Maybe the key to getting in there, identifying the locations and getting them dismantled. Once nuclear disarmament is done, guess what, with a whole change of attitude in that country, sanctions could be lifted and everyone can breathe easier...if we get there.

[pumpagain69]

Two things to consider Marsean. Unless NK agrees to allow UN inspectors the only way
to get them into the country is with a UN army. The UN security agency surely won't agree to that with Russia and China having veto power.
And the last missiles fired by NK were mobile. Quicker firing setup and much more harder
to find them. That's new tech for NK.
Knowing the above limitations for us I don't think we will get much from the backdoor talks.
NK knows that China always backs off sanctions etc. after a short period of time. The
nuke threat against the US gives comfort to Kim that this fear is his way of keeping his
country behind him and in line.

[MPkid]

Something has to happen in NK. We will see an event that will cause (Most likely by the US) some kind of military action to take place there. It's one of the last 3 countries left that doesn't have a central bank owned by the Rothchild family.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9NnPN6TM_g

[marsean]

Originally Posted by pumpagain69

Two things to consider Marsean. Unless NK agrees to allow UN inspectors the only way
to get them into the country is with a UN army. The UN security agency surely won't agree to that with Russia and China having veto power.
And the last missiles fired by NK were mobile. Quicker firing setup and much more harder
to find them. That's new tech for NK.
Knowing the above limitations for us I don't think we will get much from the backdoor talks.
NK knows that China always backs off sanctions etc. after a short period of time. The
nuke threat against the US gives comfort to Kim that this fear is his way of keeping his
country behind him and in line.

It has widely been reported that the UN Security Council unanimously has voted to condemn NK violation of all the rules for development of nuclear armaments and unanimously agreed to fully sanction that country until enough pressure is brought to bear on their economy to the point they will be forced to back down. That is already widely understood. That includes China and Russia. Now as far as the "back channel" secret talks with NK, they are the ones who are pushing that the connection be maintained, as it is the one link to the civilized world that they can measure how close they are to the tipping point. It is obvious to everyone, including them, that they are almost there, and they know the sanctions are being stepped up. Their hand is not a winning one. The real control of all things material rests in banking. NK is so hoping to put off having to join civilization because they would like to believe that no one can Yolk them. In the turn over from Obama to Trump it was the nasty secret that was left to Trump to solve. With the sanctions are certain banking actions that NK has no way to avoid. What I tried to say about the 'back channel' communications, it is NK who is desperate to believe somehow, someway they will be able to continue as they are, therefore they won't let go of that slimmest of threads. If they get told we are shutting the connection down, they are the ones who will freak and do something rash that will be their undoing. Once their money transfer capabilities are reduced to a certain level, the end of Kim regime is destined. If you view the youtube from MPKid you get closer. "NOT NOW, I'M IN THE MIDDLE OF A ROTHCHILDS". We all heard that in ads, right? Whose hand would you rather be dealt, the one of NK, or the rest of the world?