War in the Cards With N Korea?

[pumpagain69]

No Marsean I did get the memo. China lifted the one child rule a few years ago but they didn't change there thinking on the matter. For that reason it does explain why they would
make gestures why they would say things to try to prevent a war in Korea. But push comes
to shove they do not want a refugee problem and will act accordingly. I still think the problem at hand is that crazy in NK and his insecurities. But if you think China will stand
pat if all hell breaks loose you should do some research on such matters.

[marsean]

Originally Posted by pumpagain69

No Marsean I did get the memo. China lifted the one child rule a few years ago but they didn't change there thinking on the matter. For that reason it does explain why they would
make gestures why they would say things to try to prevent a war in Korea. But push comes
to shove they do not want a refugee problem and will act accordingly. I still think the problem at hand is that crazy in NK and his insecurities. But if you think China will stand
pat if all hell breaks loose you should do some research on such matters.

Do not see the relevance to the lunatic Fat Haircut claiming he will send 4 missiles near Guam after 64 years of belligerent behavior to the whole world that would culminate in an overt act of war against the country that he blames for not allowing him to dominate and take over South Korea. Such belligerent lies told to Clinton and other administrations is coming to a head now that he apparently is able to mount a mini nuke package on intermediate missiles or ICBM's, after a long and well publicized period of testing missiles and being quite vocal about it. A 64 year build up is long enough to understand the thought process is well known worldwide. It is all the former administrations who put off dealing with this, and now the current administration gets stuck with dealing with it once Haircut seem confident that he can pull something off. Regardless of tone or substance of rhetoric, it is only a fair warning by the administration we have now, from the guy whose first priority is protecting the American people. Let China deal with fallout of refugees. They supported right along the progress of NK up to and including watering down the sanctions they were pledged to put into place to slow this nutcase down. They have a large responsibilty in how this has played out. I hear conflicting stories today whether they plan to cut the fuel that they agreed to in the sanctions with the UN from NK or not. It is what it is. I do not believe we will exercise a pre-emptive strike on NK, so if NK has an itchy trigger finger it's on them. If they back down there may be a diplomatic way out. BTW, you have heard by now this backchannel story, right? That is the direct connection for communication that has been going for some time, the progress is behind the scenes, and is the thread NK has been depending on for real concept of policy decision. Accordingly we don't hear right away as things are considered. Only thing I believe is that if NK fires missiles near Guam they will be sorry. After that play it by ear.

[marsean]

Originally Posted by pumpagain69

No Marsean I did get the memo. China lifted the one child rule a few years ago but they didn't change there thinking on the matter. For that reason it does explain why they would
make gestures why they would say things to try to prevent a war in Korea. But push comes
to shove they do not want a refugee problem and will act accordingly. I still think the problem at hand is that crazy in NK and his insecurities. But if you think China will stand
pat if all hell breaks loose you should do some research on such matters.

By the way pumpagain69, unless you have personal experience with caring for refugees in an extended emergency situation, don't throw that out to me again. I do have that experience, more than you can imagine. If China plays it right with sanctions they may not have to worry about dealing with refugees. They have the key to influencing NK more than any other state, even at this juncture, it is not so much about rhetoric of two leaders, rather that China can cool off NK from making a big mistake that no one wants to see happen.

[pumpagain69]

Originally Posted by marsean

By the way pumpagain69, unless you have personal experience with caring for refugees in an extended emergency situation, don't throw that out to me again. I do have that experience, more than you can imagine. If China plays it right with sanctions they may not have to worry about dealing with refugees. They have the key to influencing NK more than any other state, even at this juncture, it is not so much about rhetoric of two leaders, rather that China can cool off NK from making a big mistake that no one wants to see happen.

Interesting Marsean do tell what was your personal experience with caring for refugees?

[marsean]

Originally Posted by pumpagain69

Interesting Marsean do tell what was your personal experience with caring for refugees?

Suffice to say it was from late March to early May 1975 in world record numbers, many of whom eventually populated Little Saigon and mostly the rest of Southern California and across the U.S. That's enough for this forum.

[pumpagain69]

Originally Posted by marsean

Suffice to say it was from late March to early May 1975 in world record numbers, many of whom eventually populated Little Saigon and mostly the rest of Southern California and across the U.S. That's enough for this forum.

I respect that Marsean. Doesn't equate to Chinas dilemma on their own border but what
ever your experiences were I would think were admirable and challenging. For the record
starting with Clinton then Bush and Obama the US efforts to address the NK threat were
pathetic. It was dumped into Trumps lap right at the onset. I applaud that he is addressing the matter head on and only wish this was addressed much sooner when the collateral damage would have been much less.

[marsean]

Originally Posted by pumpagain69

I respect that Marsean. Doesn't equate to Chinas dilemma on their own border but what
ever your experiences were I would think were admirable and challenging. For the record
starting with Clinton then Bush and Obama the US efforts to address the NK threat were
pathetic. It was dumped into Trumps lap right at the onset. I applaud that he is addressing the matter head on and only wish this was addressed much sooner when the collateral damage would have been much less.

Agreed on all your points. I have seen this morning a five bullet point wish list that has obviously emerged from the backchannel chatter from the Haircut. And it is obvious that he wants to talk and negotiate. We'll see what comes. I maintain that he knows that his big brother China is the key, and we know that too. If China fully carries out what they agreed to in the UN Security Council and we just turn the financial screws, Haircut will either have to cry Uncle or he may be done internally. He knows if he fires those missiles anywhere near Guam it is game over, or if the Japanese shot down some of them and nuclear fallout desends on Japan in the process, the Haircut will have made his final play. I say again, don't blink. Just wait. I firmly believe that in Haircuts mind, no matter what his military advisors have told him, he knows it is put up or shut up time. As long as China does not rush into the fray of dialog and obviate their resolution agreement with the Security Council of the UN, it can be a waiting game for a peaceful outcome. Eventually NK will have to disarm and obey the UN mandate. Yes, that's where we are back to if the next week or so see no missile shots.

[pumpagain69]

BTW the news is Kim Jong Un went into hiding. With a NK holiday tomorrow that
might mean a missile launch might be imminent. Hope not the shit could spiral quickly.

[marsean]

Originally Posted by pumpagain69

BTW the news is Kim Jong Un went into hiding. With a NK holiday tomorrow that
might mean a missile launch might be imminent. Hope not the shit could spiral quickly.

News on msn was that he wants to see what we will do for a while longer before he takes any action. (Translation: He knows we mean business and decided he likes breathing. His way of weaseling. He is trying to buy time and knows that we don't intend to do pre-emptive strike. He thought if we responded with some strike, maybe just to nail him, he would have public opinion in his favor. Now he is stymied. He desperately is doing back channel chatter to hope to reach some accommodation that will let him negotiate to keep some nukes <for defensive reasons>. Sorry, their program is outlawed by the world, that is why there are sanctions with a 15-0 vote by UN Security Council. He will be made to back down, dismantle their nuke program, and the world will be a safer place. (IMHO). It may take some time, but we have been watching him and his family play this game for the last 64 years. If he gives up he may keep some FACE (the most important element in Korean and Asian culture) and even live, but with any false steps, it won't fly. We'll see.

[pumpagain69]

Originally Posted by marsean

News on msn was that he wants to see what we will do for a while longer before he takes any action. (Translation: He knows we mean business and decided he likes breathing. His way of weaseling. He is trying to buy time and knows that we don't intend to do pre-emptive strike. He thought if we responded with some strike, maybe just to nail him, he would have public opinion in his favor. Now he is stymied. He desperately is doing back channel chatter to hope to reach some accommodation that will let him negotiate to keep some nukes <for defensive reasons>. Sorry, their program is outlawed by the world, that is why there are sanctions with a 15-0 vote by UN Security Council. He will be made to back down, dismantle their nuke program, and the world will be a safer place. (IMHO). It may take some time, but we have been watching him and his family play this game for the last 64 years. If he gives up he may keep some FACE (the most important element in Korean and Asian culture) and even live, but with any false steps, it won't fly. We'll see.

I can definitely see the logic in most of what you are bringing forth marsean. But I do have
lingering thoughts as to what could happen next. Firstly Trump gave his fire and fury remarks witch brought alarm to many. That was ok with me however. When he then said maybe my remarks weren't strong enough it seemed to me he was expressing frustration.
Then the short fat one backed away from Guam attack and said the ball is in the U S court for the next move. So I wonder with the scheduled U S and So Korea military exercise
next week that NK strongly opposes what will this set off. I see another week of high tensions up coming.