Clinton Leads by 4 Nationally; Trump Hurt Himself in Debate

[Libertine]

Clinton Leads by 4 Nationally; Trump Hurt Himself in Debate

Public Policy Polling Press Release:

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's new national poll finds Hillary Clinton leading by 4 points both in the full field of candidates, and in a head to head match up with Donald Trump. In the full field she gets 44% to 40% for Trump, 6% for Gary Johnson, 2% for Evan McMullin, and 1% for Jill Stein. She leads Trump 49/45 if voters had to choose just between the two of them.

Monday night's debate was a big success for Clinton. 54% of voters think she won it, to only 31% who think Trump won. Beyond that simple fact it opened up several issues that may persist for the rest of the campaign:

-The discussion about Trump's personal taxes in the debate has voters thinking several things that could prove very problematic for his ability to make a comeback in the final 40 days. Only 31% of voters think Trump pays his fair share of federal income taxes, to 52% who think he does not. 46% of voters nationally think that they personally pay more in federal income taxes than he does, to only 36% who think Trump pays more.

Of course Trump could settle these issues in voters' minds by releasing his tax returns. And 62% of voters think he should do that to only 27% who don't think it's necessary for him to. But voters have a theory on why Trump might not want to release them: just 35% think Trump is as rich as he says he is.

-For the most part when Donald Trump says or does something, his voters go along with it no matter what it is. But his criticism of former Miss Universe Alicia Machado for gaining 'a massive amount of weight' is a step too far even for his core supporters. Overall just 17% of voters think it's acceptable for Trump to criticize her weight, to 65% of voters who say they think it's inappropriate. Even among Trump's voters just 29% stand by him on those comments, to 45% who say he's in the wrong.

-Trump did come out of the debate with an advantage on one issue. By an 18 point margin, 49/31, voters think he's the candidate more likely to cause a nuclear war if he was President.

There aren't a lot of undecided voters in the head to head match up between Clinton and Trump, but when you drill down on them you see how Trump's neverending controversies could end up making it impossible for him to win over enough of them to win the election:

-Only 13% of them think Trump pays his fair share of taxes, 53% think he doesn't. By a 54/16 spread they'd like Trump to release his tax returns.

-Only 10% of them think his comments about Alicia Machado's weight are appropriate, 60% think they're inappropriate.

-50% of them think Trump should apologize to President Obama for his leadership of the birther movement, only 23% think he shouldn't say he's sorry.

-Trump floated the idea that he may have intentionally been given a defective microphone in order to help Clinton on Monday night, and a plurality of his supporters are lapping that conspiracy theory up. 40% of his voters think he was deliberately given a bad microphone in order to skew the debate, to 37% who disagree, and 23% who aren't sure. Few non-Trump supporters buy this line of thought though- overall just 23% of voters think he was purposely given a bad mic.



9-29-16

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p...onal_92916.pdf