Quote:
Originally Posted by pumpagain69
I can definitely see the logic in most of what you are bringing forth marsean. But I do have
lingering thoughts as to what could happen next. Firstly Trump gave his fire and fury remarks witch brought alarm to many. That was ok with me however. When he then said maybe my remarks weren't strong enough it seemed to me he was expressing frustration.
Then the short fat one backed away from Guam attack and said the ball is in the U S court for the next move. So I wonder with the scheduled U S and So Korea military exercise
next week that NK strongly opposes what will this set off. I see another week of high tensions up coming.
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Heard more of China talks with US over this issue and over trade issues. Both the US and China say that our trade issues and NK are separate issues and must be dealt with separately. I agree with the assessment on that. It is hard for China to hear that their(carrot before the donkey)strategy to get US companies to do business in China they have been required to share IP of the US companies with their Chinese counterparts or government in order to gain access to the Chinese markets. Now it was announced this not only effectively steals the knowledge contained in IP from the US companies who developed it, but that it costs the US a loss of 30% of jobs and profit and also gives China a huge trade imbalance with us because of what the Chinese do with their "Free" donation of IP by us. This is a separate issue but China knows they will have to deal with it.
Back to the NK issue, I maintain (since 80-90% of NK trade is with China, and US can cause a slowdown of banking functions that NK depends on) it remains to be seen how long NK can function without getting nervous about survival. NK has apparently finally deduced that missile shots at Guam is not a helpful move for their future. Fat Haircut's (FH) statement that they will wait a while before taking action it besides a cop out, a way of buying time (time to breathe). He wants to act as if he has a lot of options but he knows they have pressed it to the breaking point since all 15 votes in the UN Security Council went against him making threats, which he ignored for years that the UN condemned long ago NK's Nuke program. The US is not going to sit idly by and take FH threatening us or our territory or our allies. Now he knows it. He decided he has to cool it or lose it big time. Just think if he did the Guam thing, and his country were devastated. Even if he were to survive, what would he tell his people then? It might go back to an armistice but in that scenario he loses all his Nukes anyway with his people dropped way way down about 10 notches. FH has some serious thinking to do. Over time if the sanctions are held in a serious way by US and China, with a continuing dialogue, to be sure it is effective, the region over there can be made to be peaceful, and whether or not is causes a regime change, NK will have to dismantle their Nukes, which will shut off the influence of Iran and other bad actor states who have helped NK get to where they are. Peace in our time. It may be shocking, but China has realized for this to come, actually will be heavily beneficial FOR THEM in the long term too. Nobody wants war, especially a world war, who is thinking correctly, as peace with commerce for all works out much better. We know this, and so does China. NK will come to understand it as well but first instead of going against the grain and acting like a spoiled brat, they will have to learn to live as the world has dictated to them, which they will have to sell to their people a totally new message, that doing so will lead to their prosperity and survival.
Therefore, the calm and measured way is to take the LONG TERM view and not let the day to day and weekly rumblings cause actions which would be regretted by all.